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Under pressure from all sides, Yasser Arafat looks to survive another crisis

By Greg Myre, Associated Press, 12/10/2001 00:40

JERUSALEM (AP) Nearly 20 years ago, Ariel Sharon tried to deal a knockout punch to Yasser Arafat and the PLO by driving them out of neighboring Lebanon, and into distant exile in Tunisia.

Now Israelis are debating whether Sharon, then defense minister and now prime minister, should attempt to push the Palestinian leader from the region again in response to continuing terror attacks.

Across Israel, billboards have sprung up saying: ''Expel Arafat. Return hope.''

Seeking to force Arafat into a tough crackdown on extremists, Israel has wrecked his helicopters and bombed Palestinian security offices just yards from his office while continuing a suffocating blockade on the Palestinian economy. Arafat also finds himself under mounting pressure from Washington to end terrorism, while facing resistance at home from supporters of militant groups such as Hamas.

Yet, as vulnerable as he seems, the 72-year-old Arafat has made a career of rebounding from crisis, and Israeli and Palestinian analysts say he will likely survive as the Palestinian leader and remain in the Palestinian territories.

''Arafat is in more trouble than any time since Lebanon in 1982,'' when the Israeli invasion forced him from his base there, said Gerald Steinberg, an Israeli political analyst. But he expects Arafat to ''wiggle out'' of the current crisis without taking tough action against Palestinian militants.

Many Israelis argue Arafat has failed to halt terror attacks and even tacitly encouraged them and will never negotiate a final political settlement. With the United States and other Western countries taking a tough line on terrorism following the Sept. 11 attacks in America, Israel now has the opportunity to give Arafat a shove, hard-liners say.

In a poll in the Maariv newspaper, 56 percent said Israel should try to remove Arafat from power, with only 34 percent opposed. A smaller majority 51 percent to 42 percent favored destroying the Palestinian Authority.

In a weekend interview with The Associated Press, Arafat was evasive about whether he believed Israel's government was trying to force him out of office. He said the Israeli military strikes were aimed at extracting concessions from the Palestinians ''to squeeze the Palestinian people, to let them kneel...''

Arafat said he was used to coming under Israeli attack, citing the 1982 Lebanon invasion. ''Do you think it is the first time he (Sharon) had done it?'' Arafat asked, referring to this week's rocket attack near his office. ''You have to remember Beirut.''

The Sharon-Arafat feud dates back decades, and even when they held lengthy negotiations in 1998 that led to an interim agreement, they did not shake hands.

But Sharon's government has said it will not act directly against Arafat. Such a move would raise the prospect of a leaderless Palestinian population since there is no one on the horizon to replace him.

''Any attempt to hit the Palestinian leadership or its head, Yasser Arafat, will destroy the peace process in the whole region,'' said an Arafat aide, Tayeb Abdel Rahim. ''This will not produce stability or calm; it will lead only to more bloodshed.''

Arafat's dominant role has squelched any serious debate about a possible successor, and it's widely assumed he'll remain in power until he's no longer physically able. He still has the loyalty of the 40,000-man Palestinian security forces.

Two potential candidates, Arafat deputy Mahmoud Abbas and Palestinian parliament speaker Ahmed Qureia, are both behind-the-scenes operators in their 60s and have had health problems.

A younger generation in their 30s and 40s have gained prominence during the current uprising. They include Mohammed Dahlan and Jibril Rajoub, security chiefs in Gaza and the West Bank, respectively, West Bank police chief Tawfiq Tirawi and Marwan Barghouti, who heads the Tanzim militia.

Asked in the interview who would succeed him, Arafat said only: ''Who will be elected by the Palestinian people. The Palestinians have to choose.''

Several ministers in Sharon's government called this past week for removing Arafat in hopes for a more amenable successor.

But Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak warned that if Arafat was killed it would leave a vacuum that no Palestinian successor could fill.

Palestinian leaders ''would vie for popularity and compete in staging violent operations, internally and externally, against Israel, plunging (the region) into chaos,'' Mubarak said. Israel ''should understand this and know that it is dangerous.''

Ironically, Sharon's own political fortunes could depend on Arafat's survival. If Arafat was forced out by Sharon, Israel's coalition government could collapse, with liberals such as Foreign Minister Shimon Peres pulling out, said Efraim Inbar, an Israeli who heads the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies.

Sharon would be pleased to see Arafat go, but doesn't want to be the one responsible, and this has led to contradictory policy, argues Ghassan Khatib, a Palestinian political analyst.

''On the one hand, Sharon takes actions that weaken Arafat,'' Khatib said. ''On the other hand, he expects Arafat to take tough measures against groups such as Hamas.''

Under attack from Israel, Arafat also has seen his security forces clash with Palestinians angry over the crackdown on the militants.

''If the current situation is bad, imagine how it will be without Arafat,'' Khalil Shikaki, a leading Palestinian analyst, wrote recently. ''Today, his leadership is the glue that keeps together the (Palestinian) old guard and the young guard. In his absence, all hell could break loose.''

-- Anonymous, December 10, 2001