11/05 00:14

By William Roberts

Washington, Nov. 5 (Bloomberg) -- The political battle between Republicans and Democrats for control of the U.S. Senate comes down to a contest for six states where polls show candidates are statistically tied as voting begins today.

``It's anybody's game,'' said Jennifer Duffy, who covers Senate campaigns for the Cook Political Report, a newsletter that analyzes U.S. elections. ``Get out the vote is what it comes down to right now. That always makes a difference when it's too close to call.''

Democrats will probably lose a seat in Missouri, while Republicans will likely lose in Arkansas, Duffy and other political analysts said, citing poll results that show challengers ahead in both states. Democrats are facing strong challengers in Minnesota, South Dakota and Georgia, while Republicans are fighting to hold Colorado, New Hampshire and Texas. A net swing of a single state to the Republicans would give them control of the Senate.

At stake is the direction of President George W. Bush's next two years in office. Senate Democrats have blocked Bush's initiatives on oil drilling in Alaska, a drug benefit for seniors backed by pharmaceutical companies, additional tax cuts, revisions to personal injury laws and his nominees to be federal judges. Bush made last-minute campaign appearances for Republicans in Iowa, Missouri, Arkansas and Texas yesterday.

``Some of these races have tightened in a way that benefits Republicans,'' said Larry Sabato, a political science professor at the University of Virginia. Sabato predicts no change in the balance of Senate control.

Wellstone's Death

Until Minnesota Senator Paul Wellstone's death Oct. 25, Democrats held 50 seats, Republicans held 49 and there was one independent, Senator Jim Jeffords of Vermont, who usually votes with the Republicans. Minnesota Governor Jesse Ventura yesterday appointed another independent, Dean Barkley, to replace Wellstone until the winner of that state's Senate race takes office.

While Republicans are gaining in South Dakota, Minnesota and New Hampshire, those races remain too close to call, Sabato said.

In Minnesota, Democratic Senate candidate Walter Mondale and Republican Norm Coleman held their only debate yesterday, discussing taxes, federal judges, counter-terrorism efforts and the threat from Iraq.

Mondale, 74, the former U.S. vice president who replaced Wellstone on the ballot, criticized Republican economic policies, saying, ``The economy is slipping and this administration shows no interest at all in stepping forward and helping people.''

Coleman, 53, a former mayor of St. Paul, sought to differentiate himself from Mondale, who last ran for public office 18 years ago. ``This election is about the future,'' Coleman said.

There is little evidence that Democrats have made inroads with voters in their quest to make the economy a dominant issue in the campaign, analysts said. Although voters are concerned about the economy, they aren't prepared to blame Republican candidates, they said.

`Pretty Flat'

``The national trends are all pretty flat,'' said Carroll Doherty, editor at the Pew Research Center for People and the Press. ``People aren't feeling terribly good about the economy, but they aren't inclined to blame either party or the president for the bad economic conditions,'' Doherty said.

In New Hampshire, Democratic Governor Jeanne Shaheen is competing with Republican Representative John Sununu for the Senate seat that incumbent Bob Smith lost in the Republican primary.

Two of three recent polls give Sununu an edge and Sabato said Sununu may have the momentum. ``Until this week, I thought Shaheen was going to win that one, but now it's just a complete toss-up,'' Sabato said.

In South Dakota, where Republican Representative John Thune is seeking to unseat incumbent Democrat Tim Johnson, Bush's high- profile support for Thune in Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle's home state has given the race national overtones. Two of three recent polls give Johnson a narrow lead.

Colorado, Georgia, Texas

Republican Senator Wayne Allard in Colorado faces a potential upset by Democrat Tom Strickland. Recent polls are split, with three showing Allard ahead, and three giving Strickland the lead.

In Georgia, Democrat Senator Max Cleland is being challenged by Republican Representative Saxby Chambliss. Polls are split on who's ahead.

Texas Republicans are trying to hold on to the seat being vacated by retiring Senator Phil Gramm. Democrat Ron Kirk, a former Dallas mayor, is close to Republican Attorney General John Cornyn in recent polls, and analysts say voter turnout may be the deciding factor.

-- Anonymous, November 05, 2002

Answers

Raindrops By TOM BAXTER and JIM GALLOWAY The Atlanta Journal-Constitution

Have a news tip? E-mail Tom Baxter or call him at 404-526-5943. Galloway can be e-mailed or reached at 404-526-5520.

An historian who intensely studied the 15th to 18th centuries came to the conclusion that over that period, the single factor which affected the course of events most was the weather.

We bring this up at this late date in the campaign because after all the ads, the debates, the direct mail and media spin, there's one big variable in today's election.

Look out the window.

It looked pretty cloudy in Atlanta as night was falling Monday, and the forecast was for more rain in North Georgia than South Georgia on Tuesday.

The traditional wisdom is that rain hurts Democrats more than Republicans, and depresses the African-American vote more than the white vote. But rain falls on everybody, and depending where it's heaviest today, it could have lot of unforeseen consequences.

-- Anonymous, November 05, 2002

Here's where the rain is:

Link to US radar loop

-- Anonymous, November 05, 2002