Forecasters Monitor Warming Ocean Temperatures

November 7, 2002 — Climate and weather experts from NOAA today said El Niño remains on track to influence weather across the United States during the upcoming winter season. Currently, NOAA scientists classify the El Niño’s intensity as moderate, but are watching closely for any further strengthening. “Following the recent trends, we expect the waters in the eastern equatorial Pacific to continue to warm, and mature El Niño conditions will prevail through February 2003. Although an increase in the strength of this El Niño is possible, we don’t expect it to compare with the 1997-98 version. Also, the global impacts should generally be weaker” said Vernon Kousky, a meteorologist at the NOAA Climate Prediction Center. (Click NOAA satellite image for larger view of El Niño conditions as of Nov. 4, 2002. Click here for latest conditions. Please credit “NOAA.”)

NOAA issued its first outlook for the upcoming winter season on Sept. 12 and still asserts those projected conditions are on course. The nation can expect drier-than-average conditions in states in the Ohio Valley and northern Rockies; wetter-than-average conditions, with increased storm activity across the South; and warmer-than-average conditions across the north, including southern and southeastern Alaska.

NOAA will update its official national Winter 2002-2003 outlook and El Niño’s status in December.

The CPC issues seasonal climate outlooks from one to 13 months in advance. The CPC is one of the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Prediction, which is a part of NOAA National Weather Service. NOAA Weather Service is the primary source of weather data, forecasts and warnings for the United States and its territories, and operates the most advanced weather and flood warning and forecast system in the world, helping to protect lives and property and enhance the national economy.

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-- Anonymous, November 12, 2002

Answers

El Niño’s Impact On 2002-03 Fall, Winter

With nearly half of the United States experiencing drought, the fall/winter outlook only offers “limited relief,” said retired Air Force Brig. Gen. Jack Kelly, director of NOAA's National Weather Service. “While some improvement in the drought is possible, namely across the Southwest and southern and central Plains states, it may not be enough to alleviate dry conditions entirely, particularly in the Northwest, Northeast, mid-Atlantic, and the Ohio Valley.” (Click image of U.S. Drought Monitor as of Sept. 10, 2002 for larger view. Click here for high resolution version, which is a large file.)

Overall, Kelly said forecasters expect El Niño’s fall and winter impacts to include: drier-than-average conditions in the Pacific Northwest and mid-Atlantic states during fall; drier-than-average conditions in the northern Rockies and the Ohio Valley states during the winter; wetter-than-average conditions in the southern tier of states during winter; and warmer-than-average conditions in the northern tier of the United States during winter.

Jim Laver, director of NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, the section of the National Weather Service that produced the fall/winter outlook and tracks El Niño, said the agency’s commitment to research and technology helped forecasters. “We’ve had our eyes on this El Niño for months, and understand it well enough to predict its likely climate impacts months in advance,” he said.

Across the nation, the 2002 Fall outlook includes:

In the Pacific Northwest and mid-Atlantic states, drier than normal conditions are expected. Over the rest of the United States, there are equal chances for rainfall to be above normal, normal or below normal.

Above normal temperatures are expected in southern parts of Florida, and in the Southwest and western islands of Hawaii. Over the rest of the United States, there are equal chances for temperatures to be above normal, normal or below normal.

The 2002/03 Winter outlook includes:

Below-normal precipitation is expected in the Northwest including Washington, northeast Oregon, Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, western parts of North Dakota, and northwest South Dakota. (Click NOAA image of winter 2002 outlook for larger view. Click here for high resolution version, which is a large file.)

Precipitation is also expected to be below normal in the Ohio Valley states.

In the southern parts of the United States, stretching from central/southern California to the Carolinas, precipitation is expected to be above normal.

Temperatures are expected to be above normal across the northwestern, mid-western and northeastern states of the continental United States.

Over the rest of the continental United States, there are equal chances for precipitation and temperatures to be above normal, normal, or below normal.

Temperatures are expected to be above normal over southeastern parts of Alaska.

Below-normal temperatures and below normal precipitation are expected in Hawaii.

NOAA will continue to issue monthly updates to the 2002-03 winter outlook.

-- Anonymous, November 12, 2002