Vietnam War Death Toll Statistic.greenspun.com : LUSENET : Vietnamese American Society : One Thread |
Sẳn có 1 sinh viên bên VN đang viết essay về tổn thất trong chiến tranh việt nam, t́nh cờ vào forum và email riêng hỏi tôi rằng các số liệu tôi đưa ra là dựa trên source nào. Tôi đă cung cấp cho anh bạn đó những số liệu sau. Nhân tiện nêu ra cho các bạn trong forum cùng tham khảo. Số liệu trích tù website sau: http://users.erols.com/mwhite28/warstatz.htm Sau đây là các dẩn chứng. First Indochina War (1945-54)
- Our Times: 1,300,000
- Clodfelter, Michael, Vietnam in Military Statistics (1995)
- French Union dead: 74,220
- French: 20,685
- Foreign Legion: 11,620
- Africans: 15,229
- Indochinese: 26,686
- Allied Indochinese states: 18,714
- Viet Minh: 175,000
- Civilians: 125,000
- TOTAL: 392,934
- Bernard Fall
- Street Without Joy: 75,867 French Union dead and missing; 18,714 Indochinese allies dead; 94,581 Total.
- The Two Vietnams (1963): 250,000 civilians killed; Vietminh casualties three times the French losses.
- D. Smith: 600,000
- Eckhardt: 300,000 civ. + 300,000 mil. = 600,000
- B&J: 500,000
- S. Karnow, Vietnam : a History (1983): 400,000
- Spencer Tucker, Encyclopedia of the Vietnam War (1998)
- French Union dead: 75,867
- Allied Indochinese states: 18,714
- Viet Minh: 3 times that
- Civilians: 250,000
- TOTAL: 630,000 (?)
- T. Lomperis, From People's War to People's Rule (1996)
- French dead: 92,707
- Viet Minh: >500,000
- Civilians: 250,000
- TOTAL: 842,707
- Stanley Kutler: Encyclopedia of the Vietnam War (1996)
- French and Indochinese client states: 94,581 killed
- Viet Minh: 300,000
- WHPSI: 44,165 deaths by political violence in both Vietnams, 1948-54
- 6,000 civilians killed in French shelling of Haiphong, 1946 (Dictionary of 20th Century World History; Grenville)
- Michael Clodfelter, Vietnam in Military Statistics (1995): 15,000 executions, 1954-56; 1,000 killed and wounded in peasant uprising, 1956-57
- Bernard Fall, The Two Vietnams (1963): 50,000 executed in connection with land reform
- Gilbert: 100,000 peasants executed
- Harff & Gurr: 15,000 Catholic landlords, rich and middle peasants killed in North Vietnam, 1953-54
- Guenter Lewy, America in Vietnam (1978): 50,000 executed, 1955-56, under land reform law of 1953
- Rummel:
- 415,000 democides in NVN, 1945-56
- Antinationalist Terror: 15,000
- Land Reform: 250,000
- Political Struggles: 100,000
- Uprisings: 13,000
- Prison/Labor Dead: 24,000
- Other: 13,000
- 216,000 democides during the Vietnam War, 1957-75:
- in NVN: 50,000
- in SVN: 166,000
- Spencer Tucker, Encyclopedia of the Vietnam War (1998): up to 100,000 landlords executed or dead of starvation
- Marilyn Young, The Vietnam Wars: 1945-1990 (1991) cites:
- Edwin Moise, "the most careful historian of the land reform": 3,000-15,000
- "Inflated":
- Bernard Fall: 50,000 executed
- Richard Nixon: 500,000 dead
- AVERAGE: Three experts put the total around 15,000. Four experts put it around 50,000 to 100,000. Two put it around a half million. The safest guess would be 50-100,000.
Second Indochina War (1960-75)
- Vietnam War: Most historians of the Second Indochina War concern themselves primarily with the American Phase of the conflict, 1965-73; however, many do not specify whether their estimated death tolls cover only this phase of the war or the whole thing. An asterisk(*) indicates that the number seems to cover the entire conflict rather than just the American Phase, but check the "Sources" section to see exactly which years are covered by each authority:
- South Vietnam military: 185,000 to 225,000 (Britannica) or 220,357 (Lewy) or 223,748 (Summers; also 3 April 1995 AP) or 224,000 (Kutler, Olson) or 250,000 (Clodfelter, Grenville*) or 254,257 (Wallechinsky*) or 650,000 (Small & Singer) [MEDIAN: 224,000]
- North Vietnamese military and Viet Cong: 500,000 (S&S) or 660,000 (Olson) or 666,000 (Lewy, with the possibility that as many as 222,000 (1/3) of these were actually SVN civilians mistaken for VC) or 666,000 (Summers) or 700,000-1,000,000 (Wallechinsky*) or 900,000 (Britannica; Grenville*) or 1,000,000 (Clodfelter) or 1,100,000 (Tucker*, Official VN* [1954-75]) [MEDIAN: ca. 875,000]
- South Vietnamese civilians: 250,000 (Olson) or 287,000 (Clodfelter = 247,600 war deaths + 38,954 assassinated by NLF) or 300,000 (Kutler; Summers) or 340,000 (Lewy's estimate, with the possibility that an additional 222,000 counted as VC (above) belong in this category) or 430,000 (The Sen. E. Kennedy Commission, according to Lewy, Olson) or 522,000 (Wallechinsky*) or 1,000,000 (Britannica [in both North and South]; Eckhardt; Grenville*) or 2,000,000 (Tucker*, Official VN* [N&S, 1954-75],) [MEDIAN: ca. 476,000]
- North Vietnamese civilians: 65,000 (Kutler, Lewy, Olson, Summers, Wallechinsky) by American bombing.
- USA: 58,000 (Britannica) or 58,153 (Wallechinsky*) or 58,159 (Kutler) or 47,244 KIA + 10,446 other = 57,690 (Olson, Summers, 1961-80) or 56,146 (Lewy: 46,498 KIA + 10,388 other + 719 MIA) or 56,000 (S&S)
- South Korea: 4,407 (Lewy, Olson, Summers); 4,687 (Wallechinsky); 5,000 (S&S)
- Philippines: 1,000 (S&S)
- Thailand: 351 (Lewy, Olson, Summers, Wallechinsky); 1,000 (S&S)
- Australia: 469 (Lewy, Summers, Olson [w/NZ]); 492 (S&S); 494 (Wallechinsky); 520 (AWM)
- TOTAL: 1,216,000 (military only, S&S) or 1,312,000 (Summers) or 1,353,000 (Lewy) or 1,520,453 (WHPSI: S. Vietnamese only, 1965-75) or 1,637,000 (Olson) or 1,721,000 (Kutler) or 1,749,000 (Wallechinsky*) or 1,800,000 (B&J, 1960-75) or 2,058,000 (Eckhardt) or 2,163,000 (Britannica) or 2,500,000 (Grenville*) or 3,000,000 (1965-75, Chomsky* (1987)) or >3,100,000 (Tucker*; Official VN*)
- [MEDIAN of TOTALS: ca. 1,900,000] or [TOTAL of MEDIANS: ca. 1,710,000]
- Misc. Atrocities:
- Lewy:
- 36,725 civilians assassinated by VC/NVA, 1957-72
- 2,800 civilians executed and 3,000 missing after Hue was captured by VC/NVA, 1968
- 400 civilians massacred by USAns in the area of Son My village, incl. 175-200 in My Lai hamlet, 1968
- Because of the lack of weapons recovered from many bodies, Lewy considers the possibility that up to 222,000 VC KIA may have actually been innocent bystanders. (Or maybe not. Poor evidence either way.)
- Harff & Gurr: 475,000 civilians in NLF areas were victims of repressive politicide, 1965-72
- Young: Hue massacre, 1968:
- Officially: 2,800-5,700
- Len Ackland: 300-400
- Chomsky (1987): 21,000 VC civilian officials assassinated under US/GVN Phoenix project (-in text. Endnote gives estimates ranging 40-48,000.). Lewy considers these to be (mostly) legitimate military targets.
- Rummel:
- 90,000 democides by South Vietnam:
- 1954-63: 39,000, incl. 24,000 dead in forced resettlement programs
- 1963-75: 51,000, incl. 30,000 executions
- 166,000 democides by NVN/VC in SVN:
- Officials assassinated: 17,000
- Civilians assassinated: 49,000
- Refugees killed, 1975: 50,000
- Misc: 50,000
- In addition to the American Phase of the War, there are four tangental conflicts which are sometimes discussed as part of the Vietnam War, but usually considered peripheral:
- Vietnamese Civil War, internal phase, 1960-65
- Clodfelter, 1961-64
- South Vietnam, military: 21,442
- Communist: 71,000
- Civilian: 160,000
- TOTAL: 252,442
- Chomsky (1987):
- 1957-61: 66,000 VC (p.274, citing B. Fall), 80,000 Vietnamese (p.323)
- 1961-4/65: 89,000 VC
- to mid 1966: 60,000 ("enemy" (McNamara) - "probably" including civilians (Chomsky))
- Total, 1954-65: 160-170,000 VNese (p.324)
- S&S: 300,000 battle deaths, 1960-65
- Eckhardt: 200,000 civ. + 100,000 mil. = 300,000 (1960-65)
- Young: NLF lost 100,000 dead 1961-(?)64
- WHPSI:
- 21,686 deaths by political violence in South Vietnam, 1960-64
- 4,021 from 1955 to 1959
- Cambodian Civil War (1970-75)
- Chomsky (1987): half a million to a million.
- Rummel, 1954-75:
- War Dead: 429,000
- Democide: 288,000
- TOTAL: 717,000
- Tucker: 10% of 7M [which comes to 700,000]
- Clodfelter; also Wallechinsky (1970-75)
- Cambodian govt.: 50,000
- Total violent deaths, incl. Comm. and civ.: >250,000
- Total war-related deaths, incl. hunger: 600,000
- T. Lomperis, From People's War to People's Rule (1996), citing a Finnish commission: 600,000
- MEDIAN: ca. 0.5-0.6M
- Chirot: 500,000
- B&J: 300,000
- SIPRI 1989: 156,000
- S&S, 1970-73
- Cambodia: 150,000
- USA: 500
- SVietnam: 5,000
- NVietnam: 500
- TOTAL: 156,000
- Eckhardt: 156,000
- WHPSI: 55,750 k. by pol.viol., 1970-75
- Laos
- Wallechinsky, 1959-75: 250,000
- Martin Stuart-Fox A History of Laos: 200,000 by 1973, incl. 30,000 Hmong.
- Rummel, 1954-75:
- War Dead: 32,000
- Democide: 38,000
- TOTAL: 70,000
- Eckhardt: 12,000 civ. + 12,000 mil. = 24,000 (1960-73)
- S&S, 1960-73
- Laos: 5,000 (1960-62), 15,000 (1963-73)
- USA: 500
- NVietnam: 3,000
- TOTAL: 23,500
- WHPSI: 22,355 k. by pol.viol., 1963-72
- T. Lomperis, From People's War to People's Rule (1996): 20,000 Meo irregulars and 15,000 Royal Lao Army
- Harff & Gurr: 18-20,000 Meo tribemen were victims of genocide, 1963-65
- Vietnamese Civil War, final phase, 1973-75
- Young, citing Pentagon estimates:
- ARVN: 26,500 (1973) + 30,000 (1974)
- PRG/DRV: 39,000 (1973) + 61,000 (1974)
- Civilians: 15,000
- TOTAL: 171,500 killed in the "Cease-Fire War".
- Sources:
- Britannica: not specified, but the implication is that the statistics cover the entire war.
- Clodfelter, Michael, Vietnam in Military Statistics (1995)
- Eckhardt: covers the years 1965-75 (unless otherwise noted)
- Grenville: does not specify which years are covered, but by context, it seems to be 1960-75
- Kutler, Stanley: Encyclopedia of the Vietnam War (1996)
- Lewy, Guenter, America in Vietnam (1978): Lewy's estimates cover the years 1965-74. (u.o.n.)
- Official VN: On the 20th Anniversary of the war's end, Hanoi announced its official tally of losses for 21 years of war: 1954-75 [3 April 1995 AP; 30 April 1995 Washington Post]
- Olson, James: Dictionary of the Vietnam War (1988): covers the years 1965-74 (u.o.n.)
- Summers, Harry: Vietnam War Almanac (1985)
- Tucker, Spencer, Encyclopedia of the Vietnam War (1998)
- Wallechinsky: death tolls apparently cover the years 1957-75. (u.o.n.)
- Young, Marilyn, The Vietnam Wars: 1945-1990 (1991)
Vietnam, post-war Communist regime (1975 et seq.)
Sino-Vietnamese War (1979)
- Jacqueline Desbarats and Karl Jackson ("Vietnam 1975-1982: The Cruel Peace", in The Washington Quarterly, Fall 1985) estimated that there had been around 65,000 executions. This number is repeated in the Sept. 1985 Dept. of State Bulletin article on Vietnam.
- Orange County Register (29 April 2001): 1 million sent to camps and 165,000 died.
- Northwest Asian Weekly (5 July 1996): 150,000-175,000 camp prisoners unaccounted for.
- Estimates for the number of Boat People who died:
- Elizabeth Becker (When the War Was Over, 1986) cites the UN High Commissioner on Refugees: 250,000 boat people died at sea; 929,600 reached asylum
- The 20 July 1986 San Diego Union-Tribune cites the UN Refugee Commission: 200,000 to 250,000 boat people had died at sea since 1975.
- The 3 Aug. 1979 Washington Post cites the Australian immigration minister's estimate that 200,000 refugees had died at sea since 1975.
- Also: "Some estimates have said that around half of those who set out do not survive."
- The 1991 Information Please Almanac cites unspecified "US Officials" that 100,000 boat people died fleeing Vietnam.
- Encarta estimates that 0.5M fled, and 10-15% died, for a death toll of 50-75,000.
- Nayan Chanda, Brother Enemy (1986): ¼M Chinese refugees in two years, 30,000 to 40,000 of whom died at sea. (These numbers also repeated by Marilyn Young, The Vietnam Wars: 1945-1990 (1991))
- Rummel
- Vietnamese democide: 1,040,000 (1975-87)
- Executions: 100,000
- Camp Deaths: 95,000
- Forced Labor: 48,000
- Democides in Cambodia: 460,000
- Democides in Laos: 87,000
- Boat People: 500,000 deaths (50% not blamed on the Vietnamese govt.)
- ANALYSIS: I'd say the most likely total would be 430,000. That's 65,000 executions + 165,000 camp deaths + 200,000 boat people. It's unlikely that VN alone caused 460+87T democides in Cambodia + Laos since estimates of the total deaths in these conflicts only run to a half million or so.
- WPA3: 20,000
- S&S:
- China: 13,000
- Vietnam: 8,000
- TOTAL: 21,000
- SIPRI 1988, Eckhardt
- military, 1979: 21,000
- civilian, 1979: 9,000
- additional, 1980-87: 1,000
- TOTAL: 31,000
- Michael Clodfelter, Vietnam in Military Statistics (1995)
- "inflated": China claimed that 30,000 Vietnamese were killed
- "preposterous": Vietnam claimed that 26,000 Chinese were killed
- "realistic": 20,000 killed on both sides
- B&J
- 1st Sino-VN War (1979-82): >50,000
- 2nd Sino-VN War (1984-87): 3,000
-- Nguoi Tranh Dau (nguoitranhdau@hotmail.com), November 17, 2003